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Get the three Gs... More 'stag,' hotter 'flation'... Lunch with Buffett... Chanos' $25 million house... Signs of a top in steel?...

For the first time in history, the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled the Second Amendment to the Constitution contains the specific right of an individual to own a handgun. The ruling strikes down a 32-year-old Washington D.C. ban on handguns, which also required rifles and shotguns be dismantled or fitted with trigger locks.

I listened to the oral arguments, and it's funny to hear one of the justices describe what happens when an armed burglar comes through the window in Washington D.C. It went something like, "First you switch on the light, then you put on your glasses, then you grab your gun... then you enter the code to unlock it..."

This is good news for the two publicly traded gun companies Smith & Wesson (SWHC) and my own pick, Sturm, Ruger (RGR). The U.S. gun industry is highly fragmented, made up of 300 companies, most of which are tiny. It's ripe for consolidation.

Both public gun stocks are more than 65% below their 52-week-highs. And both companies have excellent brand names and loyal followings. Ruger is especially well managed these days.

As for gun demand... Starting right now, folks will be focusing more and more on the three Gs: guns, gold, and groceries. If you won't take it from me that times are hard and definitely about to get harder, maybe you'll take it from one of the richest men in the world...

Warren Buffett is concerned about "stagflation, or a slowdown in the U.S. economy while inflation accelerates... We're right in the middle of it right now. I think the 'flation' part will heat up and I think the 'stag' part will get worse."

And if you'd like to eat a steak and talk about either the stag or the flation with Buffett himself, now's your chance. The annual eBay auction for lunch with Warren Buffett at the Smith & Wollensky steakhouse in New York ends tomorrow night. The proceeds benefit the Glide Foundation. The current bid is $77,100, which must be a sign of the slowing economy... our friend Mohnish Pabrai paid $650,100 to win last year's auction.

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Goldman Sachs downgraded GM from "neutral" to "sell," adding the stock to its "Americas Sell List." Goldman cited the risk of equity dilution, a dividend cut, and more cash burn. GM shares have fallen by about half since January 1.

Most people don't even know what it means to sell a stock short. It means you borrow shares and sell them in hopes of profiting from their decline. Short selling is all hedge-fund manager Jim Chanos does. His most famous short was a company called Enron. Shorting has apparently paid off quite handsomely...

Now he has a five-bedroom, 14-room triplex penthouse overlooking Central Park to reward his hard work. According to a source in the building, Mr. Chanos is in contract to buy the penthouse at the iron-fenced mansion 3 East 75th Street, listed for $24,850,000 by Paula Del Nunzio, who would not comment.

According to the listing, there's 7,800 square feet of interior space and 3,600 square feet outdoors. So... Jim Chanos' patio is more than twice the size of my house.

On the other hand, I shorted Lehman Brothers a couple months ago in Extreme Value, and it's falling apart nicely.

Instead of shorting stocks, maybe you should just become the CFO of Google. Oops, the job is taken. It was recently given to Patrick Pichette of Bell Canada. Here's the offer letter, which says Pichette wasn't hired because of his knowledge of "confidential, proprietary or trade secret information of a prior or current employer." That's an interesting bit of legal protection on Google's part. As Michelle Leder's footnoted.org points out, CFOs don't typically work on new products... but Google is working on a new mobile phone platform called Android.

S&A's own Jack Lizmi is in New York for the week. This morning, he visited an old friend, a muni-bond trader for a European bank. The trader said the job market for first- and second-year bankers is the worst in over a decade. All the business-school grads thought they'd land a hedge-fund job and make millions. Unfortunately, no hedge funds are hiring... And no one's giving out capital to start new ones.

One hedge fund finally turning around is Goldman Sachs' Global Alpha. The fund is up 19% through the middle of June. Another Goldman Fund, Global Equities Opportunities (GEO), is up about 7% over the same period. The two quant funds got crushed in 2007. GEO lost nearly 30% in August alone. Global Alpha lost more than 20% that month.

Lakshmi Mittal, chairman of ArcelorMittal (the world's largest steel company) said, "I can say with considerable certainty that the volatile years of boom and bust are now relegated to the past. We have succeeded in transforming ourselves into a profitable and sustainable industry."

Sounds eerily similar to private-equity titan Henry Kravis proclaiming we were in the "golden age" of private equity last July... months before the private-equity bubble burst.

New highs: none.

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June 26, 2008

Stansberry & Associates Top 10 Open Recommendations

Stock
Sym
Buy Date
Total Return
Pub
Editor
Seabridge
SA
7/6/2005
703.4%
Sjug Conf.
Sjuggerud
Humboldt Wedag
KHD
8/8/2003
529.3%
Extreme Val
Ferris
EnCana
ECA
5/14/2004
353.8%
Extreme Val
Ferris
Exelon
EXC
10/1/2002
347.1%
PSIA
Stansberry
Valhi
VHI
3/7/2005
296.9%
PSIA
Stansberry
Icahn Enterprises
IEP
6/10/2004
193.0%
Extreme Val
Ferris
Petrobras
PBR
2/13/2007
187.2%
Oil Report
Badiali 
Comstock Resources
CRK
8/12/2005
177.6%
Extreme Val
Ferris
POSCO
PKX
4/8/2005
163.6%
Extreme Val
Ferris
Crucell
CRXL
3/10/2004
154.6%
Phase 1
Fannon

Top 10 Totals
5
Extreme Value Ferris
2
PSIA Stansberry
1
Sjug. Conf. Sjuggerud
1
Oil Report Badiali
1
Phase 1 Fannon

Stansberry & Associates Hall of Fame

Stock
Sym
Holding Period
Gain
Pub
Editor
JDS Uniphase
JDSU
1 year, 266 days
592%
PSIA Stansberry
Medis Tech
MDTL
4 years, 110 days
333%
Diligence Ferris
ID Biomedical
IDBE
5 years, 38 days
331%
Diligence Lashmet
Texas Instr.
TXN
270 days
301%
PSIA Stansberry
Cree Inc.
CREE
206 days
271%
PSIA Stansberry
Celgene
CELG
2 years, 113 days
233%
PSIA Stansberry
Nuance Comm.
NUAN
326 days
229%
Diligence Lashmet
Airspan Networks
AIRN
3 years, 241 days
227%
Diligence Stansberry
ID Biomedical
IDBE
357 days
215%
PSIA Stansberry
Elan
ELN
331 days
207%
PSIA Stansberry
 
 

Published by Stansberry & Associates Investment Research.

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