March 5, 2008 - The S&A Digest
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The Goldman showdown... Uniform paychecks on Wall Street... Gross buys munis... We explain the new highs, again...

Porter makes a much bigger deal about our Goldman Sachs feud than it actually is. When I first moved to Baltimore, I went to his house for dinner, and over drinks we started talking about Wall Street banks. I told him I thought Goldman Sachs was the best around. To my credit, I think it's proven that. He bet me it would take a huge write-off in the next couple of years. True, it did write down the value of some assets, but compared to the rest of Wall Street, Goldman is still tops. And luckily, neither of us remembers what we actually bet... so it looks like I'm off the hook.

While Goldman trades higher today than it did when Porter and I first talked, things seem to be unwinding. Last month, we reported Goldman was firing the bottom 5% of its workforce. But rumors arose yesterday that Goldman could lay off as much as 25% of its employees. There were also some high-profile departures... including the "retirement" of Peter Kraus, who took over as head of investment management in 2001.

You may also notice the flurry of Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) ads popping up all over Yahoo and Google. GSAM controls the bank's hedge funds, including the beleaguered Global Alpha quant fund. The Financial Times reported today that the largest U.S. hedge funds increased their assets by one-third since last year. But Goldman is hemorrhaging hedge-fund assets. The bank fell from the second-largest hedge fund to seventh place this year. GSAM lost 27% of its assets in the second quarter alone.

Here's something that will never happen... The Institute of International Finance, a global association of banks, is trying to instate industry-wide rules for compensation. The IIF hopes to discourage traders from taking risky bets for short-term profits. Some of the proposed changes include deferring bonuses until the full impact of bankers' actions are realized and making bankers who lose money earn it back before receiving new bonuses.

Investment banks get the best talent by offering huge salaries. Uniform compensation would kill a major competitive advantage. If these compensation rules pass, we're sure to see a huge rush for the hedge-fund and private-equity world.

To quote one of the most overused investment credos of our day: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." Bond King Bill Gross took Buffett's words to heart last Friday when he bought $1.5 billion in municipal bonds in the midst of chaos. Seventy percent of auctions for muni bonds are failing. And now California, the country's largest issuer, will no longer use bond insurance. No one is sure, including Gross, if the bond insurers will lose their AAA ratings. Nonetheless, Gross says he bought at "very attractive prices," and the bonds have improved "substantially" since then.

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Nothing much in the mailbag, which seems to be the trend nowadays. We all miss Porter, but that's no excuse not to write... feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

New highs: Chunghwa Telecom (CHT), Covanta (CVA), EnCana (ECA).

"i've always assumed that your picks and recs to be seconds or thirds. i read my subscriptions to find where the market is going, but i always have the feeling that you buy into different companies. i did very well buying some coal stocks, but your actual pick was pretty much a dud. it is nice to follow someones reccomendation and have it all come up roses. but i am finding that your suggestions tend to underperform the industry." – Anonymous

Goldsmith comment: Our business thrives when we give you the absolute best research possible. It's true our company policy bans us from owning stocks we recommend, but I promise you are getting our best ideas.

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"When I bet on a football team their results are there for everybody to see...
You seem a bit one sided listing your top 10 recommendation, what about the bottom 10? It would seem to me that there should be a total return for each of the news letters, it may not be realistic, nobody would buy every recommendation but it would be a more real world number than what you publish at the moment.. But I suppose you are pandering to the greed of people that read the news letter everybody thinking your next pick is going be as good as the ones in the top 10!! Maybe putting in the bottom 10 would have people checking their stops and being a bit more careful!" – Paid-up subscriber Martin McClintock

Goldsmith comment: We published a bottom 10 in The Digest last year. You can see it here. And that list isn't nearly as exciting. We all know the most you can lose on mosts investments is 100%.

"[Yesterday's] S&A Digest noted a new high for streetTRACKS Gold (GLD)... last I looked Spot Gold was off just under 2% and GLD closed down $2.2..." – Paid-up subscriber Seth

Goldsmith comment: You're right. Gold did drop. But the new highs list we publish includes stocks that hit a new high the day before.

Regards,

Sean Goldsmith
Baltimore, Maryland
March 5, 2008

Stansberry & Associates Top 10 Open Recommendations

Stock
Sym
Buy Date
Total Return
Pub
Editor
Seabridge
SA
7/6/2005
871.6%
Sjug Conf.
Sjuggerud
Humboldt Wedag
KHD
8/8/2003
439.2%
Extreme Val
Ferris
Icahn Enterprises
IEP
6/10/2004
417.9%
Extreme Val
Ferris
Exelon
EXC
10/1/2002
315.1%
PSIA
Stansberry
EnCana
ECA
5/14/2004
287.0%
Extreme Val
Ferris
Posco
PKX
4/8/2005
170.4%
Extreme Val
Ferris
Petrobras
PBR
2/13/2007
145.9%
Oil Report
Badiali
Nokia
NOK
7/1/2004
144.9%
PSIA
Stansberry
Raytheon
RTN
11/8/2002
137.3%
PSIA
Stansberry
Valhi
VHI
3/7/2005
136.5%
PSIA
Stansberry

Top 10 Totals
4
Extreme Value Ferris
4
PSIA Stansberry
1
Sjug. Conf. Sjuggerud
1
Oil Report Badiali 

Stansberry & Associates Hall of Fame

Stock
Sym
Holding Period
Gain
Pub
Editor
JDS Uniphase
JDSU
1 year, 266 days
592%
PSIA Stansberry
Medis Tech
MDTL
4 years, 110 days
333%
Diligence Ferris
ID Biomedical
IDBE
5 years, 38 days
331%
Diligence Lashmet
Texas Instr.
TXN
270 days
301%
PSIA Stansberry
Cree Inc.
CREE
206 days
271%
PSIA Stansberry
Celgene
CELG
2 years, 113 days
233%
PSIA Stansberry
Nuance Comm.
NUAN
326 days
229%
Diligence Lashmet
Airspan Networks
AIRN
3 years, 241 days
227%
Diligence Stansberry
ID Biomedical
IDBE
357 days
215%
PSIA Stansberry
Elan
ELN
331 days
207%
PSIA Stansberry
 
 

Published by Stansberry & Associates Investment Research.

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